Short-Term Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization on Crime

Abstract: New York became the 15th state to legalize marijuana for recreational use in 2021. With a growing share of the country legalizing cannabis, researchers and policymakers have studied the effects of its legalization on the economic and social characteristics of the states that have legalized marijuana. This analysis adds to the existing literature by exploring the implications of marijuana legalization for recreational use in New York State. Specifically, we analyze the impact of marijuana legalization on crime rates in New York City. We leverage New York Police Data and run a Two-Way Fixed Effects Difference-in-Differences model to estimate how crime rates changed after the passage of the law. We find that legalization is associated with an increase in the number of arrests for some, but not all, violent crimes in precincts where marijuana arrests were high prior to the passing of the law. The increase in crime could be related to a reallocation of police resources to other crimes, but further analysis is necessary.